Is COVID-19 vaccine spreading the virus among the population?

We are in the middle of the global pandemic, and we see cases are still growing despite the effort of mass vaccination. When a significant portion of a certain community is immune to the virus, the virus would automatically be reduced because of fewer transmission sources. However, cases rising in highly vaccinated countries such as in Israel and UK pose a serious question- why a fewer unvaccinated people would help rising COVID-19 cases? What is the underlying mechanism? Is it because of the delta variant?

We have seen cases to rise during mass vaccine rollout in Israel, UK, Chile, India, Seychelles, etc. We believed that a high number of COVID-19 vaccination would reduce the cases and would lead us to normalcy. However, we observed an increasing number of hospitalizations and deaths along with the case rise. For example, the Sky News anchor quotes SAGE report, saying ‘the vaccine might fail to prevent hospital admissions among a very small number of people particularly the elderly between December the 8th when the UK began its mass vaccination roll out and April the tenth’. In Seychelles, the total number of COVID-19 cases since the beginning of the pandemic was 612 until January 13th this year when vaccination rollout started. Since then (until July 21, 2021), the total number of COVID-19 cases are 16,929. Vaccinated people in the entire population are currently 72% (at least one dose, source- ourworldindata.com), a number higher than the UK and Israel. Before January 13th this year, only 1 person died from COVID-19, since then the number of deaths is 85.

In recent days, we see cases rise in the UK, however, the death rate in the UK is relatively low so far. We also observed cases and hospitalization to drop in the US for the last few months until the recent summer surge. Therefore, we have conflicting outcomes where something else may have played the COVID-19 dynamics. If this is the case, correlation among vaccinated people and hospitalizations or deaths when numbers are low will not be useful and could be dangerous at a different scenario and in a different location. For example, in last summer (2020) hospitalization peak was around 60,000 in USA. This year it is 76,800+ (until 8/11/2021) and is still growing despite of vaccination, while daily cases soars much higher compared to last year. Therefore, the following questions need to be addressed- what actual role vaccine is playing? Does it help decrease the number of hospitalizations and deaths? Does it help spread COVID-19 cases? Is there any vaccine brand that has significant issues?

Here are some more studies that suggest COVID-19 vaccination may have played role in virus spreading. For example, In Chile from large-scale data analysis, COVID-19 cases among unvaccinated elderly (above 60 years old) were lower than the vaccinated group who were partially immune. Partially immunized was defined as ≥14 days after receipt of the first vaccine dose and before receipt of the second dose. If COVID-19 cases among partially immune are higher than the unvaccinated group, it would be interesting to see COVID-19 cases among those who received the first dose but did not pass 14 days threshold of partial immunity. If vaccine helps in case rising, COVID-19 cases among this group (after receieving first dose and before getting partial immunity) would show a further higher number of COVID-19 cases. A recent study from UK found that an outbreak in a care home was caused by someone who was single dosed partially vaccinated. If we look at their studies, we can see the picture as the following- COVID-19 cases among the group who were in ≥ 21 post-dose 1 was 100% (sample size, n=2), among the group who were in 0–13 post-dose 2 was 57% (n=28), among the group who were in ≥ 14 post-dose 2 was 100% (n=3) and among the group who were unvaccinated was 37.5% (n=8). 10 people were symptomatic and four were hospitalized out of 41 COVID-19 positive cases and no deaths or ICU reported. Another similar outbreak study (April 15th to May 3rd, 2021) in a gymnastics facility from the US projects a similar trend of a high number of COVID-19 cases among partially vaccinated people. Out of 194 exposed persons, 23% (4 out of 17) of fully vaccinated, 22.5% of unvaccinated (vaccine ineligible, 27 out of 120), and 28% of partially or unvaccinated (vaccine eligible) people (16 out of 57) got the COVID-19. From the information of vaccination status on April 15th, 2021, 3 people were COVID-19 positive who were partially vaccinated. From the information on May 3rd, 2021, 11 people were COVID-19 positive among partially vaccinated people. It is not stated clearly in their study, however, it could be possible that all the partially vaccinated people were COVID-19 positive which would make COVID-19 cases among unvaccinated (eligible) people as 24%, consistent with other unvaccinated (ineligible) and fully vaccinated group. These recent studies at the different region, time and vaccine brand shows that COVID-19 cases are higher among partially vaccinated people even though they may remain asymptomatic. Testing and tracking everyone who were exposed revealed this picture, especially for the aforementioned outbreak studies. This can also be supported from another study where fecal transplant made both COVID-19 negative patients COVID-19 positive. Perhaps, this is not explored yet how interference in the immune system may lead someone from COVID-19 negative to COVID-19 positive. This needs further investigation if any prior dormant virus is being activated from viral reservoir by the vaccines, seasonality, or other clinical intervention such as fecal transplant. Meanwhile we can raise question by looking at COVID data of unvaccinated people (who never recieved any vaccine) and vaccinated people (who recieved at least one dose). Current data in unvaccinated group includes people who are within 14 days after recieving 1st dose.

Some may argue that we did not see case rise in US during vaccine rollout. That's true. Virus spreads mostly through symptomatic people. During the last few months (May-July, 2021) in USA, weather was not virus favorable (the article is currently under review). Unvaccinated people may have gotten the virus but they were asymptomatic. US is not tracking COVID cases sufficiently either among vaccinated people. Most of the COVID symptoms were possibly undercovered by vaccine side effects. Now cases are rising because of the hot summer as people use indoor ACs. From the gymanastics study, when the indoor climate was above 16C wet bulb temperature (assuming indoor temperature at 21C), no one was showing symptoms. Please review the table below while adjusting the date considering that people develop symptoms generally in two days.

Recent news also tells that higher COVID cases were reported in some counties in California with higher COVID vaccination rate. This is taken from a news report published in CBS Sacramento on July 26th, 2021.

A new analysis finds several counties with above-average vaccination rates also have higher COVID case rates, while case rates are falling in counties with below-average vaccination rates.

A recent study from the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) in Bangladesh found 306 (23%) fully vaccinated and 592 (44%) unvaccinated people among 1334 COVID positive people aged above 30 between May and June. It seems from the report that the rest (436) of the COVID patients recieved one dose or were partially vaccinated. Therefore, the total vaccinated people who recieved at least one dose among all those COVID patients were 55%. Until June, only 3.54% (source- www.ourworldindata.org) of the population in Bangladesh received at least one dose.

Therefore, there is a reason for concerns if mass vaccination helps in virus spreading in certain weather conditions. If this is the case, the unvaccinated people will suffer the most. As we are not focusing on reducing virus replication, vaccinated people will suffer as well. We must need to figure out immediately if vaccination helps virus spreading. Here is my proposal to address this issue.

We need to report COVID cases as the following categories:

Unvaccinated (who never received vaccines)

Unvaccinated (who received vaccines)

Partially vaccinated

Fully vaccinated

with reporting percentage of population in each group.

We also need to ask every vaccinated person to test within few days of vaccination if they show side effects or COVID like symptoms. Vaccinated individuals should be recommended for stool tests as well if their nasal swabs tested negative. Because virus in their bodies, if it is due to the consequence of vaccination, is not transmitted through their nasal airways, rather triggered from possible virus reservoir in their bodies. Infact, Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trials reported 409 suspected but unconfirmed COVID cases in vaccinated group compared to 287 in the placebo group within 7 days of any vaccination. Therefore, it is very possible that if vaccinated individuals share the same toilets with unvaccinated household members, they can potentially spread the virus!

(The article was first written on July 23rd, 2021)